Why we probably won’t win the Cricket World Cup this year

*if you want the quick answer, skip to the bottom

WORLD CUP YEAR! Every four years (since 1999), South African sports fans get excited for the Rugby and Cricket extravaganzas. YES 1999, the year we tied with Australia in both semi-finals, but went home. I know we all blame Donald for not running, everyone has forgotten that he took 4/32 in 10 overs and should never have been batting chasing what now looks like a T20 score (213). If anyone gets some deserved finger pointing it’s a certain DJ Cullinan, who scored 6 off 30 balls, and then ran himself out. What people do remember is that Zulu carried us that tournament, coming in at #8 and klapping it, and even had Bouch batting at 9. He was player of the tournament, an award he really didn’t want after the drama and disappointment. If you’re a masochist, watch this one:

 

I could go on, but many more much talented people have written about this game before me, but it does bring me to the main point:

 

We just don’t have enough batting, and we are now exactly 4 months away from the opening game against England on May 30^th. Having a look at the current squad, and who has been in Ottis’ plans for the past 12 months.

Here is who I think he is going to pick for his side/squad of 15 players

 

Q de Kock [H Klaasen]

HE van der Dussen [RR Hendricks/ A Markram]

HM Amla

F du Plessis

DA Miller

JP Duminy

AL Phehlukwayo

K Rabada

DW Steyn

Imran Tahir [T Shamzi]

L Ngidi [D Olivier/D Pretorius/ W Mulder/ B Hendricks/ D Paterson/ A Nortje/ C Morris]

(it’s not that different to the guys we took to England 2 years ago, we bombed out of that mini tournament winning 1 out of 3 league games, incase you’ve forgotten Pakistan won)

I don’t see a way to take vd Dussen, Reeza and Markram, as that would drop the last bowler slot which is the most contested one.

We have to take both spinners to England. The ICC are now in control of the pitches this time around. That is codeword for India getting conditions to suit them, we will need spin.

Both JPD and Ngidi are currently injured, with Wian Mulder/ Chris Morris recently returned and Anrich Nortje also doubtful as he is a long term layoff. What confuses me a bit is that they have been playing most of their strongest 11 and the guys on the fringe are getting very few chances to impress. We will see if the Sri Lanka series

In terms of batting, the only other guys who have played in the past 12 months are, Markram (15 games, average 22, top score 44). K Zondo, C Jonker and D Elgar. none of them are currently in the squad so must be out of the running.

In terms of bowlers who can bat, our tail is really long. We would be looking at Rabada at 8, Steyn at 9. The days of someone like Pollock coming in at 10 are a distant memory. This makes Andile Pehlukwayo an almost definite starter – while he has taken 25 wickets @ 23 and scored 200+ runs @ 32, I just don’t see him as a classic #7 (he is just 22 years old, so is still probably improving).

This tail, from 8-11 averages 16+9+8+?? (lungi ngidi’s odi batting average is 34, he’s batted 6 times with 5 not outs – I’d expect 5-10 from him) – 38 runs

Let’s compare this with England tail from the ODI series in England v India last July

Lilley,Plunkett, Rashid, Wood – 18,20,20,8 – 64 runs

So it’s obvious the top order batsmen need to get runs. I don’t really see Klaasen and QdK both playing in the same lineup unless we get a batsman in poor form, but imagine how bad things would be if we didn’t have a ‘keeper with an ODI average of 43 at a strike rate of 94?! What would it look like if we played an extra batsman at 7, with Phehlukwayo at 8 and Steyn/Ngidi being dropped. We would then need JPD to bowl all 10 overs then. Our ODI strength has always been decent allrounders, and I really wonder why Dwaine Pretorius has not been backed along with Phehlukwayo – he has a domestic record of 33 with the bat and 24 with the ball – that is comparable with anything pollock, Klusener, Kallis did and way better than Phehl 22/28 with the bat/ball. Yet he’s been given just 3 games in the past 12 months and faced just 33 balls.

The other big and related issue, the batsmen we have can’t bowl. Amla, Faf, Miller, VdDussen never bowl. Reeza Hendricks might have taken a wicket the other night, but in 149 domestic 50over games he’s bowled a grand total of 192 balls. You don’t give a guy like that the ball in a world cup. We learnt that obvious lesson in 2015 when ABDv decided he was a bowler all of a sudden and chose to bowl death overs in a world cup semi. People will remember that loss for the Behardien dropped catch, the Philander/Abbot selection issue but him bowling pies at the end was just as bad.

So to be honest, it doesn’t look good. we need:

 

*Top order to fire, there’s probably very few runs coming from the tail

*JPD to get fit and regain form with bat and ball

*Bowlers all to pitch in, there’s no overs coming from bits and pieces players.

 

Looking at the ICC rankings we have

Faf and QdK in 7th and 10th

Rabada in 4th, Tahir 11th, Phehl 33

no one in the top 10 allrounders

 

We’re ranked 4th in the world,

The betting has England 3/1, India 4/1, Aus 6/1 and us 8/1.

It would be a nice surprise if we could not dominate the league part of the world cup for once, scrape into the semis and then play 2 decent games to win it. The format has changed, it’s now 10 teams in a single round robin. The top 4 go through to semi-finals. You’d basically need to win 6/7 of those games to get through. It’s possible, I just don’t see it happening.

 

 

*quick answer – our bowlers can’t bat, our batters can’t bowl

What Crayfish?

Groot Jan is walking along the beach at Paternoster with a loaded Pick ‘n Pay bag in one arm. He’s just about to get to the parking lot when marine inspector Piet arrives with his whistle. Piet asks him about the contents of his bag, if he’s aware of the West Coast Rock Lobster regulations and the open season dates? “Nee oom, these are not kreef for eating, these are my pets. I am just bringing them to the beach for a swim.”

Jan walks back to the shore and tosses 6 small kreef into the sea. He then starts walking in the other direction, and Piet runs after him. “Meneer, what about your pets, what about your crayfish” Jan turns around slowly, looks Piet in the eye and says”What crayfish?”

It’s an oldie, and way better round a weskus braai fire but I love it anyway. Back to the task at hand, the West Coast Rock Lobster (AKA Kreef) recreational season opened last weekend. What has gone from November to Easter is now just 12 days. There have been reductions across the board (if you want to just compare year on year)

I’m not going to wade into the debate on fishing a dwindling resource but I do like to do the sums on this one, as the geniuses at DAFF play with some funky spreadsheets. If we look at 38 tonnes of kreef, and to make it simple lets say average size kreef is about 500gr(a thumbsuck*). Then you’ve got roughly 80 000 kreef to catch in this “allocation”. Looking at the actual days:

• From 15 December 2018 to 16 December 2018 (2 days);
• From 22 December 2018 to 23 December 2018 (2 days);
• On 26 December 2018 (1 day);
• From 29 December 2018 to 1 January 2019 (4 days); and
• From 19 April 2019 to 21 April 2019 (3 days).

This is really a holidays only affair, and often has extreme south east winds blowing making boat fishing difficult. I doubt many will fill their quota on all 12 of these days, and catch their 48 kreef. Some people will buy a licence for a once-off fishing day too. No one knows what the average amount of kreef is caught per licence, the only data that could point to it is the amount of licences sold and then a survey on average catch. Either way, if anything less than 7000 licences are taken out, this number will be wrong.

This guy seems to agree

 

https://www.dailyvoice.co.za/news/crayfishing-season-fury-18175419

 

 

 

What I learnt in 2200km

Just over ten years ago I got on a plane with my bicycle and a small backpack, one way ticket to Durban. I then rode home. I was doing the Freedom Challenge, which is a 2200km mountain bike ride from Pietermaritzburg to Paarl – in midwinter. At the time 26 people had ridden it, now over 300 have. It hasn’t quite gone ‘mainstream’ yet, as it is limited by the size of the accommodation options along the way and it just really is that hard. On reflection it was a pivotal moment in my life, almost to the point where I bookmark things as pre and post ‘Freedom Challenge’. What lessons came my way during those 750 000 pedal strokes?

You really can do anything if you put your mind to it

All the cute ways to say this have already been taken, but the cliché is true. This was really tough, way out of my normal comfort zone with extreme cold and long days putting the body into serious and prolonged exhaustion. It’s all about eating that elephant, you start with the first bite and just keep on going – eventually the seemingly impossible can be achieved

Really don’t put off those dreams

I had always wanted to cycle through Lesotho unsupported, so when I first heard this race it captured my mind immediately. I decided it was something I would do -a long term bucket list sort of item, but within two years there I was on the startline. I was very intimidated by the undertaking, you had to apply and list all the endurance races you’d done. Comrades/2 Oceans/Dusi etc – my boxes were all unchecked and I thought I might not even qualify for a place. A lot of people thought it was just madness, I’m glad I didn’t listen to them.

Control the controllables

Sometimes things just happen, if you can’t stop them then just got on with it. This ranged from an impending weather shower to a tyre that was degrading dangerously. Put your effort into the things that you can influence, the ones that are beyond your means are not really worth worrying about. (ie. Don’t lose too much sleep over politics – unless you’re an MP)

(most) People are amazing

My ride happened just after the xenophobic attacks of 2008, there was a lot of nastiness around and one could justifiably have a very negative outlook on our citizens and their behaviour. It was as usual the 5% of the bad eggs giving everyone else a tarnished image. This race you engage with fellow riders, who while in essence are ‘racing’ also become fellow warriors in arms. You engage with locals on the side of the road and in their kitchens. The race originator, David Waddilove, was still in charge then and it was just amazing to see a man in control of this passion project that had morphed into an incredible monster – I learnt a lot of respect for him and how he treated everyone, including scolding me for getting mud on a school floor!

South Africa is a special place

I’ve felt proudly South African before it was a catchphrase, and I suppose initially also to one that had a different flag too. The contrast of places and people this route takes you to is just unbelievable. Bicycle remains a viable way to explore, and in many cases the best! Most of the dorpies you pass through are way off the tourist map, and the valleys and by ways you take to piece them together are a piece of genius by itself. I came away feeling very committed to my corner of the planet and something indeed worth fighting for.

 

I cribbed most of these pictures from the amazing Andrew King, who did the first ever ride as well as the one I did. He was the photog in 2012 and this is some of his skills in play. The rest are from my blog itself, yes you can read all about the whole shebang here

the 8 item FIFA to do list

I take the top job at FIFA, not for the money but to do these 8 obvious things.

CORRUPTION

Remember all those scandals of corruption, bribery and manipulation that made FIFA look more like Sicillian mobsters than sports administrators? Kind of got swept under the carpet….guess where the Kingpin Sepp Blatter is now? Not in a jail cell where he belongs, but reportedly on his way to Russia on the invitation of mr Squeaky Clean himself Vladimir Putin (although he is technically not allowed to be involved in football). They could try a little bit harder to at least pretend to start a new dawn and have the game’s best interests at heart.

2018/2022 TOURNAMENTS

Believe it or not, this Russia farce is actually happening – and the Qatar joke in 2022 seems to have lasted well beyond several April 1sts. There are no football reasons for either of them to be hosts, and that’s not even looking at both coutnry’s appalling human rights records – At last count the entire football squad had only 4 Qatari’s and the rest are just mercenaries. Russia, were awarded the 2018 tournament in 2010, since then they have hosted the Winter Olympic games in Sochi 2012, now how did that go? Do you want to look at the massive corruption (which makes them a good fit for FIFA really) or the state sponsored doping scandal that got them banned from the Olympics but not FIFA. Bit late to pull out of this one, but Qatar 2022 should be cancelled ASAP.

anyone born in Doha here?

OFFICIATING

who would want to be a football referee? Should be the man in control of the game, yet get treated like absolute dirt by the players. Let me use this constant scenario to pain the scene:

a) play is in the box and a penalty is awarded

b) the defending team surround the referee, trying to reason with the decision and get him to turn it around

c) no matter how good the case put forward by the defending team, the decision stands

d) the defending team throw gestures at the ref

e) the penalty is taken.

Sometimes a card is included too. This one is great!

Seems like a logical course of events – a stand needs to be made to get officials respected. Kind of blends into the next topic, as they are all interlinked slightly.

 

OBVIOUS CHEATING/”SIMULATION”

Over the next month you will see players, fall, miraculously injure and heal, dive and anything else required to win an oscar. It’s done because it works. The poor ref gets a single look at a very rapid contact point and has to make a snap decision – there is no real immediate consequence for the player. Imagine if there was, like many, many other sports a yellow card the affect the current game’s play – like 10 minutes in the sin bin? Or video citing that could see a player skip games due to obvious manipulation of the ref – might actually reduce the incentive to cheat so much. Kind of blends into the next topic.

There’s hours of this available, yet the suits just smile and wave. It’s been an issue since Maradonna kept on getting his ankles kicked and should just be stamped out by ripping off the band aid.

DOPING/DRUGS

Doping doesn’t really exist in football, despite being the world’s largest sport, with the most amount of money there is no one pushing the boundaries? You basically have Diego Maradonna caught with cocaine, and that is it. Even when they do get caught, they don’t really. Like the Peruvian captain who got zapped last year, but a court decided to only commence his ban AFTER the World Cup, as it is too important to miss. It’s not hard to actually take this seriously.

TECHNOLOGY

They are spending an inordinate amount of money on VAR – or some ref decisions to recheck important decisions. About ten years behind the 8 ball on this one but it’s about time they did something about it, guaranteed to be a talking point at this tournament as it is not really game tested. – solution take this seriously and do it properly. Instead we will have this dominating headlines, almost guaranteed, even if it only has correct calls given.

 

SCORING

This is a low scoring sport, which means the game hinges on a few rather crucial turning points. Which is great for drama (sort of), but often has the better team ending up on the losing side. One could say look at cricket, 5 days and a draw can be the result – but then you have probably had about 1000 runs scored and more than 30 wickets taken. It never ends up 0-0, I don’t think any other major sport comes even close to the amounts of goalless draws we see in football. Why is this, have defenders got better – or are the goals maybe too small? Well they were standardised in 1848, and have remained that way ever since (apart from putting in the net in to stop potential squabbles). 170 years ago humans were on average 10cm shorter, I’m going to go out on a limb and say that international goalkeepers today are probably 15% taller/wider than when the goal dimensions were made. They make golf courses longer, why not bigger goals to up the scoring rate a bit?

THE ACTUAL WORLD CUP

This is a big deal, the blue riband world’s biggest sport, second only to the summer Olympics itself. The similarities stop there really. 32 teams will play 64 games, half of them just 3 games, or 270 minutes. This is a grand total of a maximum of 112 hours of play, over the 32 days. Compare that to the Olympics, 2 weeks of multiple sports on multiple channels – one can only thumbsuck on the amount of coverage the Olympics has, but the joke is that there is an equal amount of football being played there! There is no real reason why this is the case. After 209 teams entered the tournament why do only 32 make the big show? As mentioned before, the better team often does win, and qualification is a bit of a lottery for many teams. So we see Italy, Netherlands are not there – Cameroon, Chile, USA and New Zealand are all current reigning continental champions but are not there. Plenty of real stars not on the biggest stage. It boggles my mind that we can’t have a tournament with 60/70 teams and just more matches. The winning team will play 7 games over 32 days, for an average gap of 5 days between games. Remember half the teams are in the tournament for less than 5 hours currently. You could very easily have 60/70 teams playing a round robin, super league/repecharge split and come out with 4 deserving semi-finalists. Teams would play a minimum of 5/6 games and a max of 9/10 over the same period. More games, more teams, more fans, what’s the downside?

It is obvious, so they have increased it but only in 2026, we are then going to have 48 teams. 16 groups of 3, then 32 team knockout with the best 2 teams from each group. That is just ridiculous – so 16 teams will now just play 180 minutes. A group of 3 is seriously dumb, as you only have three games to decide the group! The only combination that works is one team winning two games and a second one winning one. If the two losing teams draw, then it’s down to goal difference – and remember this is a low scoring sport where the better team often doesn’t win. If all three games are drawn, then it’s equal goal difference and then goals score, or coin toss? Plus huge disadvantage being the team that doesn’t play the first match too – just plain (FIFA std) dumb.

 

A toss to start the game, and decide the group

 

I don’t think any of this will ever happen, it’s a pity as the world’s largest sport needs better management. The only thing that could really shift this slow boat off course is some sort of IPL type private organisation taking on FIFA (they would need mega bucks, or the players’ backing), or maybe China making good on it’s ambition to win the World Cup by 2050 (they do have a billion people, how hard is it to find 11 good ones?)

test mapping

this should be an imagemap.

let’s see if it image maps

 

 

Does this work?

 

Well let’s see what we can do about that.

 

in the meantime go do your sums

https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.zumalatorapp&hl=en

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/ono8WIWHWhLzogqxnsx4dT2Lgrv4YY9KVukCeVw8lpb8jOgK1OTBVLaFbBAXvbt2cPA=h310-rw

 

 

 

Eeeeh Aye Swaaaahzee

It is getting very close for those who are going to be on the startline in the Kingdom.

I’m missing it, mainly because juggling a an extra ball this year meant dropping this one. I’ve raced Swazi X 250km in 2009, it is a wonderful place to go running around. To manage my FOMO, I found this in the archives and played around a bit. more to come.

Expedition Africa 2014 – the Pondo experience

I have now done 3 of the 4 Expeditions, this was definitely my hardest. For me there is no greater team sport than Adventure Racing – no space for heroes as you all pull together for a common goal.

Team rustproof on the beach ready to go

This sat on my computer for a while, I really wanted to find a way to try convey what goes into this race for those who follow it. I hope I did ok, without further ado – here ya go.
rustproof EA2014report

for those with in the transkei with limited internet bandwidth, here is the txt only version.
rustproof EA2014reportTXT

Start your engines(rev those legs)

TdC management (pty) Ltd are pleased to announce that final plans are the same as those posted on these hallowed pages a few weeks ago.

 

In an effort to join the 21st century, the actual program and happenings will be tweeted. Just follow the twitterfeed hashtag here

#tdconstance

It’s not about the bike

ok, we all know that the doper that immortalised those words was talking with two tongues. Try explain the man-months in wind tunnels any other way. 

Anyway, here’s the answer to the question many have always asked – what is the ideal bike for the TdC?.

The answer is the one that you’re riding. Ok, there is some dirt, but nothing that will get greg minnaar putting knee pads.

So, In no particular order. here is the list from coolest to kakkest.

fatbike

fixie

cx bike

ss mtb

tandem

geared mtb

steel roadbike

alu roadbike

69er mtb

***** here is the uber kak list ***

650b mtb

29er mtb

carbon roadbike

unicycles